The reality of 'American Idol'

Viewership is down, success has eluded many favorites, but don't be deceived, experts say

By Randy Cordova
The Arizona Republic
January 15, 2008

American Idol winner Taylor Hicks was dropped from his record label, J Records, this month. Ruben Studdard, another Idol winner, was quietly dumped by J Records late last year.

Sales of 2007 winner Jordin Sparks have been less than inspiring. The Valley native's self-titled disc during its first week sold 119,000 copies, the lowest number ever for a debut album from an Idol champ.

And although the show still dominated the ratings last year, viewing figures for the finale showed a significant decline from the previous season: 31 million viewers in 2007 vs. 36 million in 2006.

Danger signs for the AI Franchise

Not likely. According to several industry observers, the end of American Idol as a pop-culture behemoth has been wildly exaggerated. So don't shed any tears for Simon Cowell and company.

"There's already interest about the new season," says Beville Darden, an editor for AOL Music. "If anything, it could be bigger than ever."

In the upcoming season, the producers are tweaking the format. This season, contestants will be able to play instruments while performing, which may add to the performers' street cred.

Another reason the show may be even hotter this year: The writers' strike means fewer scripted shows and more reality programs on the tube. In other words, less competition for the singing competition.

"When it comes to reality shows, this is the mother of all reality shows," Darden says. "Nothing can compare. It's a phenomenon."

So if the program is on seemingly firm ground, why don't people seem more excited over last season's top contestants? Sparks has scored a Top 10 single with the tune Tattoo, but it hasn't translated into album sales. Runner-up Blake Lewis charted in the Top 10 with his album Audio Day Dream, but the disc now is free falling on the album chart.

"It's the casting," says Sandy Deane, an editor with AOL Television. "American Idol isn't losing any steam. But it's the people who are on it."

For instance, she says, toothy Melinda Doolittle was obviously the most talented vocalist of the bunch last season. But no one, outside of her immediate family, seemed that devastated when she got the boot.

"Would I ever buy an album by her? Probably not," Deane says. "Same thing with Taylor. These people entertain me on screen for a few minutes, but I'm not going to rush out and buy their music."

That apparently seems to be the motto when it comes to Sparks. Even AI judge Simon Cowell doesn't sound high on any of the Season 5 contestants. "Last year, it just wasn't one of our better seasons," he says. "You get great years and not-so-great years. We can't guarantee that we will find a superstar. We're at the mercy of who turns up at auditions."

Of course, the show still produces people who can sell records. Season 5's Chris Daughtry finished fourth, but his band's debut album, Daughtry, sold more than 3 million discs, becoming the best-selling album of 2007.

"Chris knows how to do his work," says Mike Paul, president of MGP & Associates PR, a firm that deals in public relations for celebrities. "He is excellent when he's asked to perform. He's a little bit older. He knows how to do interviews. And not coming in first or second can be good, because you don't carry all that American Idol baggage with you."

That could be why Daughtry and Season 5's Elliott Yamin scored better than that year's Katharine McPhee, who came in second and watched her debut album belly flop. She, too, just lost her record deal, with RCA, it was reported last week. Hicks, the Season 5 winner, sold a respectable 700,000 copies; good figures for a debut album, but not so impressive when you consider that 36 million people watched him take the crown.

"It sounds like a great number, but then you think of how much money they spent promoting that record. It's not so great," says Constantine Maroulis, a Season 4 contestant who knows something about the Idol machinery. He finished in sixth place. He's worked on Broadway, had a stint on daytime's The Bold and the Beautiful (he'll return this year) and was linked in the press with singer Debbie Gibson. But he has yet to score a big breakout along the lines of Carrie Underwood or Kelly Clarkson.

"I think the bar is set really high," Maroulis says. "You can't take away people's accomplishments, but some people score home runs. A lot of people lose sight of what success really is. But really, there's room for all of us."

As for the lackluster response to hometown girl Sparks' album? Maroulis says it's too soon to count her out.

"She's likable, but she's very green," he says. "She's young and cute and has a great voice." He says Sparks has had raw luck. For instance, there's that writers' strike. That means less exposure for her to plug her music. Top it off with declining CD sales in the industry, and Sparks had two big obstacles to achieving an Underwood-style slam-dunk. "She took the title home and did what she's supposed to do," Maroulis says. "But how do you measure success? In another 10 or 15 years, if you see who is still around and has built a long and steady career, that will tell you."

And for better or worse, American Idol undoubtedly still will be around then.

"It's the one show that every person in my life is watching," says Deane of AOL Television. "Everyone watches it, and most everyone hates themselves for it."